While on the pitch, Villa fans will be ecstatic with their team’s performances this season, a sordid proposition looms over them as this season’s great antagonist seems poised to reap many teams’ star players.
For all their smart signings and recent success, Villa are by no means immune to the pitfalls of the dreaded FFP, and could well be forced into the sale of one or two big names next season in order to remain compliant with the current rulings.
There have been signs of Villa scrambling to pull together some revenue, the controversial move to become yet another Premier League club with a betting sponsor has drawn the ire of many fans.
But the decision looks to have come as a means to secure as much funding as possible in the hope that it could stave off having to lose the likes of Douglas Luiz or Ollie Watkins.
While we have seen many reports revolving around FFP in recent weeks, most focussing on Man City, Chelsea and Newcastle, Villa could well find themselves thrown into the conversation.
The sudden call to panic stations comes as a result of the £100 million deal for Jack Grealish no longer bolstering Villa’s 3-year profit margins come the 24/25 season.
How Concerned Should Villa Fans Be?
We’ve already seen FFP issues affect the club in this most recent window.
Despite bringing in the promising duo of Nedeljkovic and Morgan Rogers, Emery’s plans to bring in a striker as competition for Watkins was scuppered by FFP fears.
The duo cost a combined £14.6 million, but that essentially represents all that was left to legally spend without potential punishment.
We’ve already seen clubs seriously punished for these breaches, which has seemed a long time coming, but Villa will not want to be made an example of as an ambitious team pushing for European (dare I say Champions League) football.
Villa recorded a £281 Million loss in 3 years from 2019 to 2022, spending more than any other club in the league on players in the 21/22 season, but that Grealish sale kept Villa afloat and compliant.
It could not have come at a better time, and the foundation that has since been built has been laid thanks to that transfer.
The reason the Grealish was so important, is because academy players represent pure profit. If you’ve ever wondered how Chelsea can get away with spending like they do, it’s because their youth scouting network is enormous, and the club signs 10s of young players abroad a season to later turn a profit on.
There are always outgoings and ingoings there, with Chelsea famous for having scores of players out on loan at once.
Chelsea are well aware that most if not all of these players won’t make it into their first team, but they know they’ll be able to sell them for massive profit, essentially having reared them as academy players.
We are already seeing the commodification of homegrown players and an injection of pure profit that allows sides to bring in players from other clubs.
It’s a dystopian element of football. Many of these local players, proud to don the shirt are seen as the footballing equivalent of livestock as a result of the current state of FFP. They’re like a sustainability cheat code.
As a result, Jacob Ramsay looks set to leave to ensure Villa remain compliant, however qualifying for the Champions League could give them a massive revenue boost, which while less important in FFP’s current state, could prove massive next season.
FFP is set to change after many complaints, with revenue a huge focus of the new system. Transfer spending and sustainability will be governed by limiting teams to using 70% of their total revenue on wages and transfers.
If this new system is put in place next season, which it could well be, Champions League qualification could forgo the sales of either Luiz or Ramsay, thanks to the huge boost in revenue it provides.
No matter the case when it comes to this rule change, qualification for the Champions League will certainly help keep Ramsay and Luiz here.
But… after how the sale of Grealish has helped the club grow, the sale of one of these two, while painful, could push Villa to further heights, providing they stay smart and astute with next season’s business.
Patience looks to be the key for FFP, and while most teams are tempted to snatch and grab onto success the second they get the chance, a more pragmatic approach could see a Villa enjoy success with much greater longevity, than their counterparts.
